Sirus Digital Newsletter – Edition 70

I’ll be honest. On November 2nd (Tuesday Night – Election Night), I was watching and celebrating the Atlanta Braves winning their first World Series since 1995.

Not being a resident of Virginia (or New Jersey), I was much more interested in watching Jorge Soler crush a Homerun out of Minute Maid Park. I was excitedly watching Max Fried (on this night – “Good-Max”) put in six solid innings of work before turning it over to the “Night Shift” of Minter-Matzek-Smith who became near unhittable as the MLB season came to a close.

Transparently, I was only watching Tuesday’s election in passing and was not paying a lot of attention until those final outs were earned & the title won.

Then…

I noticed that it was looking like a poor night for Democrats in Virginia (who eventually lost most of the meaningful state-wide races in a state that Joe Biden won by 10 points just a year ago).

I later noticed that the Republican candidate for Governor of New Jersey (where Biden won by 16 points) was struggling. (Note: Eventually Democrat Phillip Murphy won, but the President of the New Jersey Senate lost to a Republican challenger with no political experience who spent less than $10K on his campaign.)

So what does this mean?

Firstly, I will remind you: Things are rarely as good or as bad as they seem. This is at the center of my Rule of Proximity where events lead us to over-emphasize the positives and negatives that happen at the moment.

It is risky to predict future events from the results of a mid-“mid-year” election! These were not even midterms where there was a potential for the national interest. Participation in “off-year” elections is often lower and elections just one year after the most recent President Election were even lower.

That said…

Democrats lost ground in a state that Biden won by 10% (VA). They nearly lost the Governorship in a state that he won by 16% (NJ).

While I do not believe that there has been an 8-12% swing in national voter sentiment, it is highly likely that was the 2020 Election to have been held early this week, Donald Trump might’ve won re-election. In swing states like GA, WI, MI, AZ, and NM, Trump would’ve likely won just enough electoral votes to eke out a victory.

The current trajectory does look daunting for Democrats.

• They are clearly underwater – trapped by a far-left Democratic base demanding action & legislation widely opposed & almost guaranteed to not fix the problems average Americans face.
• Lacking a lightning rod like Donald Trump against whom to run, they are stuck having to campaign on their policies.
• They have a massive messaging problem arising from the fact that average Americans exist far outside their urban, secular echo chamber.

Without some strong reflection (which their response to Tuesday night does not appear on the horizon), Republicans could be in for strong results in Nov 2022.

Of note, much has been said about how it is “easier” to win opposition campaigns. Lacking power, you can motivate opposition to those in power and run “against” what is being done much easier than promoting the current policies.

I personally disagree! For quite a while, I’ve looked for a candidate that ran for office on the merits of what they believed and would do instead of campaigning against something. It’s time for candidates who will give people reasons to vote FOR them instead of running campaigns based on why you SHOULDN’T vote for the “other guy”.

Gratuitous Sports Mention: Atlanta won the World Series and UGA continued its path through the SEC. Here’s to that trend continuing! (Note: As an added bit of excitement, my Falcons returned to .500 with their victory over the New Orleans Saints. That one was just “gravy”!)